Dead Man Walking

Dear Comrades, in case you missed it there have been 2 polls out today that spell very bad news for PM Turnbull – He’s a Deadman Walking – with News poll showing a continues swing away from the Liberal/National Coalition Government, making it line ball with the ALP. Now the Essential Poll has had the ALP on 51 % to the Coalition on 49 %, but the first preference vote for the Liberals has fallen to 40 % and with second preference vote takes it to 49 %, down 2 points from the recent Federal Election. The ALP’s vote has been on 51 % for several months since the August election, and looks to either stay on that number or go up in the next couple of months.

The Turnbull Government is going to tie its self in knots of same-sex marriage (SSM) and will continue to push for the Plebiscite, which is estimated to cost anything from $160 to $200 million; money we’re told the federal government doesn’t have!

All it will take to change the law on marriage is a very simple vote on the floor of the House of Representatives. Now when former Prime Minister John Howard changed the marriage law back in 2007 he did not forewarn the Australian public he was about to change the law to prevent Same Sex Marriage. He wasn’t going to allow all those ‘gays’ too marry on his watch.

The ALP, much to my disgust supported the motion to prevent its self from being ‘wedged’ on the subject. So after the vote on the floor of federal parliament it was passed into law that marriage was to be legally defined between a ‘Man and a Woman’ and nothing in-between!

Former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, could have overturned the law during his reign, but chose not to. Prime Minister Gillard opposed Same-Sex Marriage on the grounds claiming she was opposed to the ‘Institution of Marriage’, despite years earlier claiming to be in a lesbian relationship whilst at university. But, her opposition to Same-Sex Marriage might have had more to do with the support she required from the right-wing SDA faction – or the former DLP – that was diabolically opposed to the notion of homosexuality let alone Same-Sex Marriage!

For the plebiscite to go ahead the Turnbull Government must first present a motion in the House of Representatives to hold the plebiscite, before it goes to the Senate for approval. However, there is a very good chance the Motion and Bill might be defeated in the Lower-House even before it gets to the Upper-House.

Today, the Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will table a private members bill for a vote on Same Sex Marriage motion.

Now his private members bill – or stunt – might fail, but then again it just might pass as well. There are 69 Labour members and on the cross-benches; 1 Green, 2 Independents, 1 Nick Xenophon Party and 1 Bill Katter’s Australia Party member, making it 75. There are 76 Liberal and National Party Coalition members, taking 1 out for the Speaker of the House. The numbers are even. There is a good chance that Shortens private members bill might be carried, if Bill Katter supports the motion. Then the Speaker of the House, Tony Smith might be forced to use his vote as a casting vote, thus torpedoing the whole bill.

But, if Shorten is smart and puts up another bill against the Plebiscite on Same-Sex Marriage, then Coalition members opposed to holding the Plebiscite and Same-Sex Marriage might cross the floor in support of the motion, thus preventing it from going to the Senate.

Now, in the Senate the numbers are evenly split, which means any motion in support of holding a plebiscite would surely be defeated thus saving the Australian Tax payers an estimated $200million on a plebiscite the majority of Australians are opposed to!

As for Prime Minister Turnbull? Well he’s unable to go back on his word in supporting the plebiscite because it was part of the deal with the right-wing of the Liberal Party to support for PM Abbotts policy. Perhaps it’s time for Turnbull to grow-a-pair and stand up to the right-wingers and assert his authority over the party and the Coalition. Where would he and his colleagues rather be? On the Treasury Benches in charge of the money? Or divided and in opposition? If Turnbull doesn’t assert his authority then he is a ‘Dead-Man Walking’.